Europe as a growth engine
The strongest growth momentum is currently being provided by Europe. Germany, in particular, is experiencing a boost driven by new political frameworks: for the first time in many years, substantial funding is available for the expansion and modernisation of rail infrastructure, thanks to the German federal government’s special fund. This additional investment security is creating new opportunities for the industry, both for established providers and new market entrants.
USA Falling Short of Expectations
But, you know, the situation in the United States isn't as strong as we thought it'd be. Actual investment volumes are noticeably below those outlined in the last SCI study. The main reason for this is the Trump administration's policy stance, which has led to a shift away from public infrastructure projects. The resulting reluctance to invest is expected to have lasting effects well into 2030.
Emerging markets: Projects under uncertainty
The medium-term outlook for emerging markets is marked by significant uncertainty. Many new construction projects planned in regions such as South America, Africa and Southeast Asia depend heavily on international financing. While institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund continue to play a pivotal role, geopolitical shifts are becoming increasingly apparent. The United States is expected to reduce its involvement, while China may increase its influence. However, Beijing has not yet taken an official stance, adding further ambiguity to the situation.
Between 2023 and 2025, the global railway track systems market is expected to average around €38 billion per year. Maintenance and renewal (after-sales) account for around 68% of the total market volume, while new construction and network expansion (OEM) represent approximately 32%. SCI Verkehr anticipates strong growth in the after-sales segment. In contrast, the OEM segment is only projected to grow slightly above the assumed inflation rate of 2%, despite significant increases in Europe.
